Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Finals Week 3

What an incredible week we have ahead of us.

Two huge games at the 'G with four elite sides playing for two spots in the 2025 AFL Grand Final.

Things begin on Friday night with traditional rivals Geelong facing Hawthorn in the first Prelim.

These teams have met in some famous finals over the years, let's hope this one ends up sitting alongside games like the 1989 Grand Final and the 2013 Preliminary Final.

Attention then turns to Collingwood and Brisbane on Saturday evening. A replay of the 2023 Grand Final. The two most recent premiers meeting head on. Yes please.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

Geelong v Hawthorn

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG

The second-placed Cats have enjoyed a well-earned break following a dominant start to their 2025 finals campaign.

A side flooded with experience, Geelong’s Qualifying Final was dealt with incredibly professionally, dominating the Brisbane Lions to comfortably walk into a Preliminary Final.

Irish tagger Oisin Mullin put on a brilliant shut-down display on Hugh McCluggage, while the run of Max Holmes, Ollie Dempsey and Bailey Smith proved crucial in the win.

In what presents as a major relief for coach Chris Scott, the Cats exited their Qualifying Final unscathed, with Rhys Stanley marking the only absence from the side’s first 22.

Hawthorn are on a tear, downing two sides in elimination bouts to find themselves just four quarters away from the big dance.

Entering the finals in eighth place, the Hawks have proven their big-game gene, stepping up to a charging GWS side to win their first elimination final before claiming a statement win over Adelaide away from home.

Midfielder Jai Newcombe continues to reference his September pedigree, earning the best on ground nod in both of his side’s wins thus far, with 18 coaches votes close to sewing up his Gary Ayres campaign.

If the Hawks are to progress into the Grand Final, they become the first side in history to do so from eighth place.

This Preliminary Final presents as a clash that could genuinely swing either way.

The Hawks have comfortably been the best defensive unit throughout the finals series but will have to be at their very best to squander the firepower in the Cats’ front 50.

Mark O’Connor and Oisin Mullin will have major responsibilities, with the outcome of the game potentially riding on their ability to shut down Jai Newcombe – a task none have achieved thus far.

The extra weeks’ break will certainly benefit the Cats; however, the Hawks carry immense momentum following their impressive results over GWS and Adelaide.

While the blistering Hawks will remain dangerous, the experienced Cats have enough to pounce, booking their spot in the 2025 Grand Final.

Prediction: Geelong by 11 points

Jaiden Sciberras

Collingwood v Brisbane

Saturday - 5:15pm AEST - MCG

What a matchup we have on our hands.

Collingwood flipped the script on the 2025 finals series after upsetting Adelaide in week one on the road.

Now with an extra week of rest up their sleeve and returning to the MCG, all of the woes of the Magpies’ poor finish to the home and away season seemingly washed away with key players Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey and Jamie Elliott finding form at just the right time.

With a clean bill of health and home ground advantage, Collingwood are well placed to make their second Grand Final in three years. They’ll hope this plays out the same way as the 2023 decider.

Down but not out, Brisbane rallied after a poor Qualifying Final loss to Geelong to easily account for their little brother Gold Coast in last week’s semi.

While the Lions are missing some key names like, their pressure game was elite against the Suns as their midfield stars Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage ran rampant at the Gabba, even with Lachie Neale out.

With their quest of back-to-back still alive, Chris Fagan’s side have the confidence that they can beat anyone when their game is firing. If things click for them again here, they’ll be very hard to beat.

If all things were equal in terms of rest, health and venue, Brisbane are probably the best team in the competition… but given that this game is at the MCG and Collingwood are healthy and rested up, this swings slightly in their favour.

The Magpies will hope to control proceedings with their structure and defence, while the Lions will hope to create a chaotic, free flowing game which brings their ground level stars into the contest.

The style this one plays out in may well be the deciding factor. Which coach will be able to implement what they want their side to do more?

Prediction: Collingwood by 10 points.

Lachlan Geleit