Why Hodge is concerned the Giants could be headed for a straight sets exit

Four-time premiership champion Luke Hodge is worried about GWS this finals series.

While the Giants qualified fourth and as a result have the double-chance this September, Hodge thinks that Adam Kingsley’s side could be out of finals in straight sets.

The Giants kick off their finals campaign in Saturday’s Qualifying Final against Sydney at the SCG and Hodge thinks that if they lose there, they’ll most likely drop a Semi-Final matchup against the winner of the Brisbane v Carlton Elimination Final.

Hodge pinpointed one stat that gives him the most concern about Adam Kingsley’s side and that’s the number of shots they’re having on goal compared to their opposition.

“You look back and go, have they been lucky to finish top four? They won six of their first seven and I saw them dominate Brisbane on Anzac Day, but then they lost six of eight and finished strong at the back end of the year,” Hodge said on SEN Sportsday.

“But there’s some areas that I’m a little bit worried about and one is shots on goal. If you look at the top eight teams that are playing finals - the Bulldogs have had 160 more shots than their opposition (this season), they’re first, Port Adelaide have had 150 more, they’re second … they’re dominating and scoring.

“GWS are sitting 13th, they’ve had 31 shots less than their opposition (this season). Is it accuracy? Are they lucky that they’ve kicked straight and their opposition hasn’t?

“They're rated highly for applied pressure, so that adds to why teams have kicked poorly against them, teams against them have the worst accuracy in the AFL … that could be down to pressure.”

Hodge also picked out four other key statistical areas that GWS struggle with in comparison to the other elite sides in the competition.

While GWS have a 3-0 record against Sydney in finals and don’t need to leave their city in finals week one, Hodge isn’t confident in their ability to back up should they fall at the SCG.

“But in points from turnover they’re ninth, points from clearance they’re seventh, in contested possession they’re eighth and clearance differential they’re 17th,” Hodge said.

“If you look at the other top four or five teams, these are areas they’re really good at, but GWS have fallen behind.

“They’re probably lucky they’ve finished fourth and are playing the Swans, but against other teams they’ve struggled.

“I’ve almost got it down that if GWS lose this weekend, I think they’re out in straight sets.”

Saturday’s First Qualifying Final between Sydney and GWS at the SCG begins at 3:20 pm (AEST).